The Ties that Bias Specifying and Operationalizing Components of Dyadic Dependence in International Conflict

Students of international conflict are increasingly aware of the potential problem of spatial dependence. Much of international behavior is linked spatially and temporally. Yet, many dyadic analyses of interstate interactions assume independence among units. Although there exist some technical and statistical solutions for addressing spatial dependence, directly modeling the dependence generating processes is more satisfying and intellectually informative. We consider how extra-dyadic linkages to a dispute dyad could give rise to new disputes. Alliances are designed to encourage third parties to join dyadic contests, but most existing empirical analyses consider only bilateral alliance ties as factors preventing conflict onset. Likewise, contests often extend to include new disputes involving third parties that are geographically close to, or in between disputants. We develop new data on extra-dyadic alliance ties as well as the “inbetweenness” of potential third parties’ geographical location relative to conflict dyads. We show empirically that both of these linkages are strongly related to the risk of dispute onset, even while accounting for other purely dyadic factors. Our approach can be applied more broadly to address spatial dependence, and can be extended to address other spatial variables.